Genetics, not environment, contributed to winter wheat yield gains in Ontario, Canada

Ontario winter wheat variety trials from 1988 through 2018 were analyzed to distinguish genetic yield improvement from environmental and management effects. Yields increased by 38 kg per hectare per year, or 0.68% annually relative to the mean. Apart from a one-time increase associated with fungicide treatment, long-term changes in agronomic practice, climate, and other non-genetic factors did not explain the trend. Genetic improvement, including changes between market classes and gains within classes, accounted for the observed yield increase. Genomic prediction estimates were strongly correlated with field estimates, supporting continued genetic gains in Ontario winter wheat.

Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 135(6), 1893–1908